2012 - Trends to watch for

Another year rolls on by and for analaysts everywhere this is the golden time to put down some thoughts on where the world will go in the next 365 days.

The best place to start is ironically to look back on the past year, and what a year it has been. Political and physical landscapes have shifted dramatically with the Arab spring continuing to roar around the middle east (and the world) over a year after one man commited possibly the most important act of martyrdom that the modern world has seen. Decades old regimes have toppled as populations long held under the thumb of oppression have risen up in joint determination for something better.

Nature has continued to batter the land with Earthquakes in New zealand and Asia leading to the Terrible Tsunami that shook japan and changed its coast line for good. The US has not been safe with Hurricanes and Tornadoes battering the East coast and Central America.
And of course the financial world continues to struggle through the worst crisis in centuries, entire countries held at the mercy of others, the scale of the problems has come into full view in 2011 with greater clarity the weight of the worlds debt has come crashing down on us.

Technology however has kept going on its merry way with very few mis-steps to talk about. Apple continues to churn out ever increasing products and new iterations of seemingly perfectly good products which we are once more inticed into buying on the promise of new and improved features. Netflix and RIM are ofcourse possibly the two biggest losers of the year, Netflix due to a series of catastrophic mistakes which continued to pile pressure onto the company while seemingly pushing its entire consumer base away. 2012 however promises to be easier to navigate and a chance for the company to move on from the mistakes of 2011. I firmly believe that Netflix can keep its head up and move out of this dip, expansion into Europe will open up a whole new market for them but they need to make a big impression right off the bat to really take hold of a market dominated by Amazon's LoveFilm service. RIM however will not have such a positive outlook, another year of declining sales and market share being devoured by Apple and Android based phones (even Microsoft could be seen to have had a more succesful year with its MSP7 platform and a new deal with Nokia).

So where does that leave us, what do we have to look forward to in the year to come, well below i have come up with a few suggestions for trends, products and announcements we might be seeing in the year ahead. of course with any prediction im just waiting to be proven wrong (very wrong).

1. Digital Distribution pick up:
Its been on the cards for a few years and with high street stores and the retail sector in general starting to show the strain, even companies such as HMV which only a few years ago would have been seen as one of the safest and best bets in the retail market is now walking on a knife edge and at the will of its lenders. As the retail sector shows more and more strain on the high street the digital space will open wide and we will see huge increases in the levels of online shopping and most importantly Digital distribution in the lucrative video games market. DD for video games has been picking up in recent years but still faces large hurdles in terms of rolling out the infrastructure to cope with fast downloads of full retail titles. While people are happy to wait 30 min to and hour to download the latest XBLA game the chances are that when they want to play the latest call of duty or Elder scrolls game they will be less inclined to waste an entire day of download time (let alone the bill) when they could pop down to the shops and be playing again in an hour or two.

So in conclusion;

• Digital sales of music will continue to increase as the level of physical music drops.
• Movies and TV will also see increases in terms of online activity but i believe that most of the growth will come from Streaming services such as Netflix and Hulu. these services will get increased competition as cable channels and networks try to muscles into the market in similar fashions as ESPN/NBC/BBC/ITV etc etc.
• Blu Ray will slowly start to replace the humble DVD as the sole physical format for films as DVD sales fall due to the online activity.
• DD for video games wil also continue to build up momentum. More companies wil join the likes of EA and Valve in having an online outlet for their own content. This will be helped by our next point....

2. High-speed internet arrives:
Now while we in the West tend to think that in terms of technology we rule the metaphorical sea. However there is one key area in which we still lag way behind our cousins  in the far east. The speed  of our internet is not only slow compared to the connection in areas like South Korea but it is akin to comparing broadband to a simple Dial up connection (complete with sound effects). 2012 however will be the year that this changes as telecommunications companies (backed by government subsidies) roll out fibre optic broadband as the norm. The UK government (and that of my own government here in Jersey) have put not only the mouths but also there money behind a multitude of schemes to help build up the infrastructure neccesary to power the sort of technological growth which can propel our economies forwards. This will come as a welcome sight to those who wish to see my first prediction come about as the improved systems and increased tranfser speeds will make Digital Distribution available to the Whole of the markets and not just those who are willing to leave the computer buzzing through the night and can bare to see the size of the numbers at the bottom of their phone bills.

3. Ultrabooks turn up very quietly (litterally):
As with the short lived Netbook i just cant see the Ultrabook being anything more than a passing "Luxury Item". People like having DVD-drives, people like having large hard drives and people certainly dont like paying more for a product that has only has slightly more functionality than a tablet PC that costs a fraction of the price. The only bright light in this area will continue to be the Macbook Air which profits from the illusion that all Apple products have which is that of it being a neccessity, my views on the iPad can be read in previuos blog posts. 2012 therefore will be the year in which the Ultrabook staked its claim but in which it lies relatively undisturbed at the far reaches of the consumer scope.

4. Social Networks quiet down:
The big story of 2011 for those looking at this area was easily the introduction of a competitor to the goliath of Facebook. Google certainly came into the ring with fists raised and arms swinging however it seemed to retreat into its corner as soon as the first bell was rung. For now the boys at google seem to be content to build up its user base and reinforce its positive image. 2012 for me will be all about the "Micro-Network", this is where small websites will set up their own (probably entirely public) networks where peple can comment and post on various stories and ideas. It will essentially be the next step for commenters who rather than having a small box at the bottom of a page will join a broader discussion in a seperate forum type scenario.

Well there you have it, 4 predictions for the year ahead. I will aim to keep you all up to date in relation to how these areas flourish in the year to come.

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.


Edmond Webbe

"Format Syndrome" Strikes Back

Its back, sort of. Recently Youtube have been slowly develop a redesign for their nearly age-old (in terms of the internet) design UI. However it seems that youtubers are less partisan with opinion on the new design split evenly between those who love it those who hate it. This only seems to add more questions to this odd phenomena, first of which is why its not such a big deal when Youtube decides to have a complete overhaul of its websites design and yet when Facebook decides to move some elements around the internet explodes in anger.

Whatever the reason its more data for someone to compile for the official "Format Syndrome" clinical trials which must surely be coming, i mean im sure pharmaceutical companies are champing at the bit to get the first "Anti-Facebook Anger" medications, maybe something to help those deal with being defriended.

3D - Is it worth it

3D is an amazing technology, dont get me wrong on that. But the question of its future in terms of general entertainment is quite a difficult one to ask. On the one hand its commercial success with films such as James Cameron's Avatar and in handhelds like the Nintendo 3DS it seems very much as though the next step in its life would be the continual integration into normal everyday equipment.

Now there are a few problems facing the technology. First and foremost is the most obvious flaw, the "Glasses". I dont think anyone has yet to find a way of making wearing large glasses indoors anything but ridiculous, add to that the cost of the more effective higher end specs and you have a rather expensive viewing experience on top of the base cost for the TV set itself.
The solution is of course to go down the non-glasses route which has been successfully demonstrated by Nintendo with its handheld system. However we come up to a huge problem when it comes to integrating this technology into larger formats such as a home television. Currently the only way of producing this "glasses free" 3D effect is to simultaneously project 2 different views (one for each eye) at a focal point which when viewed together produce the effect. The problem of static focal points has been remedied by coupling motion sensor technology with the TV in order to move the focal point of the image to suit a moving object (this would allow a viewer to move around in a set area and still get the 3D effect). This is however very expensive in its current form. The biggest problem however arises when you have multiple viewers, so far the technology is unavailable to provide multiple focal points in order to facilitate multiple viewers from multiple angles.

With all of these problems holding the technology back it is likely that without a major push by Electronics manufacturers we will see a stalling of development or at worst a discarding (a la HD-DVD) of the technology from the main stream consumer market. However you are not likely to see a major push from the manufacturers until we see a real surge in the demand from the consumer for the technology. It is certainly a sector well worth watching over the coming years.

Youtube & the Future of Entertainment

The way in which we consume info and entertainment has dramatically changed in the last decade. Through HD and Blu-Ray onto 3D formats the quality of our products has increased exponentially the quality of content being broadcast at us. But the biggest shift in the way that we view material has been the boom of streaming. As internet speed have increased so has the amount we all want to download. Nowadays we are streaming shows via Netflix or BBC iPlayer while simultaneously downloading a new film onto our Xbox's, all while  downloading the latest album straight onto our smart phones.

Never before have we had so many ways of getting the media "we want" straight to our homes. And here is the key, "personal choice". Why spend money on an expensive cable or satellite bill in order to get hundreds of channels you will never use when you can get exactly what you want, when you want it and for a price that you know is only going towards the cost of the shows that you want to see.

In the title of this piece i made a point to name one of the sites that i believe will be central to the viewing experience in the future. Youtube is vast, both in its content and use. Almost anything can be found on it, from catching up with the latest current affairs or fashion news it is fast becoming the hub around which people live their lives and i believe that this will move into the entertainment experience in the future. Rather than searching through multiple channels in a menu on your TV screen you will be searching for the latest videos from channels which you the user has subscribed to.

The future of entertainment is simple. Its all about getting the viewer exactly what they want and exactly when they want it, no matter where they are in the world.

iPad - Modern Marvel or Consumer Illusion

Now I will openly admit that I was wrong about the iPad. When Steve Jobs stood up and announced the iPad I considered it to be a flop from the start. Why would anyone want to spend hundreds of pounds on a product which did nothing new? Coming after the un-precedented success of the iPod in its many guises and then the iPhone, the iPad seemed to me to be something of a mis-step.

Previously Apple had been at the forefront of understanding consumer demands. When we all went mad about MP3 players, they gave us the best. When the same happened with smart phones again Apple stepped up and delivered a product which at the time had no real competitors in terms of quality and user experience other than the business-centric Blackberry. But then they revealed the iPad and did the opposite. Rather than waiting for consumers to realise that what they always wanted was a tablet computer Apple came along and forced their prodcut under the nose of the consumer and shouted "Buy It" at the top of its voice.

But surely you say, there is no way that one company (or even just one man) could fool the world into buying a product it neither needed or wanted. What a fool you would be for thinking that, just as i did when i saw the announcement. Apple had become so powerful in the world of consumer electronics that it and Steve Jobs had suddenly started to rewrite the rules. These rules helped Apple not only to corner the Tablet market but also to almost single handedly create the market in the first place. Now there are those who will talk about how tablet computing was not created by Apple and this is entirely correct, however it was Apple who truly made them the product that they are today.

Facebook Format-Change Syndrome

Yes everyone it's that time of year again. When all over the internet the screams of anger start to pick up. I am of course referring to the backlash that has arisen once again over the changes to our beloved Facebook. Its amazing how angry some get over the smallest changes to the social networking site, but the question you have to ask yourselves is simple, "why do people get so angry". Many psychologists and industry analysts have pointed to a seemingly primal hatred for change or maybe its the idea of having to re-learn the website which gets some peoples metaphorical panties in a twist.

This is however a seemingly short lived anger for many, in a few weeks time as always happens, the shouts start to diminish and the comment boxes begin to lose interest as suddenly everyone realises how little any of this matters. We still get access to all the same functions we used to, but now we may have something new to fiddle our privacy settings for. Why then do we get such a huge reaction when mere weeks ago the world was pledging to sink the website in a mass exodus in outrage at the company?

My answer would be that it is merely a case herd mentality once again being amplified by the mechanics of the social networked world in which we live. Either that or there is just a whole lot of crazy people out there.