The best place to start is ironically to look back on the past year, and what a year it has been. Political and physical landscapes have shifted dramatically with the Arab spring continuing to roar around the middle east (and the world) over a year after one man commited possibly the most important act of martyrdom that the modern world has seen. Decades old regimes have toppled as populations long held under the thumb of oppression have risen up in joint determination for something better.
Nature has continued to batter the land with Earthquakes in New zealand and Asia leading to the Terrible Tsunami that shook japan and changed its coast line for good. The US has not been safe with Hurricanes and Tornadoes battering the East coast and Central America.
And of course the financial world continues to struggle through the worst crisis in centuries, entire countries held at the mercy of others, the scale of the problems has come into full view in 2011 with greater clarity the weight of the worlds debt has come crashing down on us.
Technology however has kept going on its merry way with very few mis-steps to talk about. Apple continues to churn out ever increasing products and new iterations of seemingly perfectly good products which we are once more inticed into buying on the promise of new and improved features. Netflix and RIM are ofcourse possibly the two biggest losers of the year, Netflix due to a series of catastrophic mistakes which continued to pile pressure onto the company while seemingly pushing its entire consumer base away. 2012 however promises to be easier to navigate and a chance for the company to move on from the mistakes of 2011. I firmly believe that Netflix can keep its head up and move out of this dip, expansion into Europe will open up a whole new market for them but they need to make a big impression right off the bat to really take hold of a market dominated by Amazon's LoveFilm service. RIM however will not have such a positive outlook, another year of declining sales and market share being devoured by Apple and Android based phones (even Microsoft could be seen to have had a more succesful year with its MSP7 platform and a new deal with Nokia).
So where does that leave us, what do we have to look forward to in the year to come, well below i have come up with a few suggestions for trends, products and announcements we might be seeing in the year ahead. of course with any prediction im just waiting to be proven wrong (very wrong).
1. Digital Distribution pick up:
Its been on the cards for a few years and with high street stores and the retail sector in general starting to show the strain, even companies such as HMV which only a few years ago would have been seen as one of the safest and best bets in the retail market is now walking on a knife edge and at the will of its lenders. As the retail sector shows more and more strain on the high street the digital space will open wide and we will see huge increases in the levels of online shopping and most importantly Digital distribution in the lucrative video games market. DD for video games has been picking up in recent years but still faces large hurdles in terms of rolling out the infrastructure to cope with fast downloads of full retail titles. While people are happy to wait 30 min to and hour to download the latest XBLA game the chances are that when they want to play the latest call of duty or Elder scrolls game they will be less inclined to waste an entire day of download time (let alone the bill) when they could pop down to the shops and be playing again in an hour or two.
So in conclusion;
- Digital sales of music will continue to increase as the level of physical music drops.
- Movies and TV will also see increases in terms of online activity but i believe that most of the growth will come from Streaming services such as Netflix and Hulu. these services will get increased competition as cable channels and networks try to muscles into the market in similar fashions as ESPN/NBC/BBC/ITV etc etc.
- Blu Ray will slowly start to replace the humble DVD as the sole physical format for films as DVD sales fall due to the online activity.
- DD for video games wil also continue to build up momentum. More companies wil join the likes of EA and Valve in having an online outlet for their own content. This will be helped by our next point....
Now while we in the West tend to think that in terms of technology we rule the metaphorical sea. However there is one key area in which we still lag way behind our cousins in the far east. The speed of our internet is not only slow compared to the connection in areas like South Korea but it is akin to comparing broadband to a simple Dial up connection (complete with sound effects). 2012 however will be the year that this changes as telecommunications companies (backed by government subsidies) roll out fibre optic broadband as the norm. The UK government (and that of my own government here in Jersey) have put not only the mouths but also there money behind a multitude of schemes to help build up the infrastructure neccesary to power the sort of technological growth which can propel our economies forwards. This will come as a welcome sight to those who wish to see my first prediction come about as the improved systems and increased tranfser speeds will make Digital Distribution available to the Whole of the markets and not just those who are willing to leave the computer buzzing through the night and can bare to see the size of the numbers at the bottom of their phone bills.
3. Ultrabooks turn up very quietly (litterally):
As with the short lived Netbook i just cant see the Ultrabook being anything more than a passing "Luxury Item". People like having DVD-drives, people like having large hard drives and people certainly dont like paying more for a product that has only has slightly more functionality than a tablet PC that costs a fraction of the price. The only bright light in this area will continue to be the Macbook Air which profits from the illusion that all Apple products have which is that of it being a neccessity, my views on the iPad can be read in previuos blog posts. 2012 therefore will be the year in which the Ultrabook staked its claim but in which it lies relatively undisturbed at the far reaches of the consumer scope.
4. Social Networks quiet down:
The big story of 2011 for those looking at this area was easily the introduction of a competitor to the goliath of Facebook. Google certainly came into the ring with fists raised and arms swinging however it seemed to retreat into its corner as soon as the first bell was rung. For now the boys at google seem to be content to build up its user base and reinforce its positive image. 2012 for me will be all about the "Micro-Network", this is where small websites will set up their own (probably entirely public) networks where peple can comment and post on various stories and ideas. It will essentially be the next step for commenters who rather than having a small box at the bottom of a page will join a broader discussion in a seperate forum type scenario.
Well there you have it, 4 predictions for the year ahead. I will aim to keep you all up to date in relation to how these areas flourish in the year to come.
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
Edmond Webbe
